Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View

The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem.Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Impact Assessment, Climate Change

an updated CGE point of view.

The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem

Households WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply

The security of natural gas supply is an important issue for all EU countries due to the region’s heavy dependence on imported supply sources and in light of energy demand for gas that is continuously increasing. Discussions have emphasised strategies for securing the supply at the macro level, e.g. diversification in supply sources, increase in storage capacity, etc. By contrast, consumers’ demand for the reliability of gas supply is rarely investigated. Hence this study was conducted to examine the economic implications associated with the security of gas supply directly to domestic consumers. Based on the choice experiment approach, household surveys were conducted in France, Italy and the UK. The results confirmed that the degree of the economic impact of a disruption of gas supply to domestic consumers was a function of the duration of a supply disruption and the season in which a supply cut would take place, as well as other preferences of consumers. The willingness to pay to secure per unit of gas consumption, or alternatively the costs of gas unsupplied, was estimated at between €2.65/cubic metre and €41.48/cubic metre across three different European countries.Energy security; gas supply; households; willingness to pay; choice experiment; EU

State of the low-carbon energy union : assessing the EU's progress towards its 2030 and 2050 climate objectives

Rather than examining aggregate emissions trends, this study delves deep into the dynamics affecting each sector of the EU energy system. It examines the structural changes taking place in power production, transport, buildings and industry, and benchmarks these with the changes required to reach the 2030 and 2050 targets. In so doing it aims to influence both the ambition and direction of future policy decisions, both at Member State and EU level. In order to assess the adequacy of the EU and its Member States policies with the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives, this study goes beyond the aggregate GHG emissions or energy use figures and analyse the underlying drivers of emission changes, following a sectoral approach (power generation, buildings, industry, and transport). Historical trends of emission drivers are compared with the required long-term deep decarbonisation pathways, which provide sectoral "benchmarks" or "corridors" against which to analyse the rate and direction of historical change for each Member State and the EU in aggregate. This approach allows the identification of the necessary structural changes in the energy system and policy interventions to reach deep decarbonisation, and therefore the comparison with the current policy programs at European and Member State level

Consumer Valuation of Energy Supply Security: An Analysis of Survey Results in Three EU Countries. CEPS Policy Brief No. 225/November 2010

This study investigates consumer valuation of the security of various types of energy supply, namely electricity, natural gas and transport fuels (oil). Research for the paper was carried out in the context of the SECURE project (Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainties, Risks and Economic Implications), funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme. The project develops appropriate tools for evaluating the vulnerability of the EU to the different energy supply risks, and for promoting the optimisation of EU energy insecurity mitigation strategies, including investment, demand side management and dialogue with producing countries

Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View

The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem

The Linkages between Energy Efficiency and Security of Energy Supply in Europe

It can be argued that one way to reduce the dependence from external energy sources, is simply to reduce the demand for energy. Energy savings may thus be considered a policy priority when concerns for energy security are particularly strong. Drawing on an original econometric approach, we check whether policies and measures that affect indicators of energy efficiency performance have an analogous effect on security of supply indicators, both at the whole economy level and within the main sectors of energy use in the EU 15 countries and Norway. Our analyses show that the indicators studied are affected by a number of policies and measures; however very few of them seem able to tackle effectively and simultaneously, energy efficiency, carbon efficiency and energy security. The main lesson to be drawn from this analysis is therefore that there is a number of energy efficiency policies in the EU that do work, but there is no silver bullet able to successfully address different policy objectives. Taking a more general perspective, what seems to work is the policy mix rather than this or that policy in insulation

Households WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply

26 p.The security of natural gas supply is an important issue for all EU countries due to the region’s heavy dependence on imported supply sources and in light of energy demand for gas that is continuously increasing. Discussions have emphasised strategies for securing the supply at the macro level, e.g. diversification in supply sources, increase in storage capacity, etc. By contrast, consumers’ demand for the reliability of gas supply is rarely investigated. Hence this study was conducted to examine the economic implications associated with the security of gas supply directly to domestic consumers. Based on the choice experiment approach, household surveys were conducted in France, Italy and the UK. The results confirmed that the degree of the economic impact of a disruption of gas supply to domestic consumers was a function of the duration of a supply disruption and the season in which a supply cut would take place, as well as other preferences of consumers. The willingness to pay to secure per unit of gas consumption, or alternatively the costs of gas unsupplied, was estimated at between €2.65/cubic metre and €41.48/cubic metre across three different European countries

Households’ WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply

The security of natural gas supply is an important issue for all EU countries due to the region’s heavy dependence on imported supply sources and in light of energy demand for gas that is continuously increasing. Discussions have emphasised strategies for securing the supply at the macro level, e.g. diversification in supply sources, increase in storage capacity, etc. By contrast, consumers’ demand for the reliability of gas supply is rarely investigated. Hence this study was conducted to examine the economic implications associated with the security of gas supply directly to domestic consumers. Based on the choice experiment approach, household surveys were conducted in France, Italy and the UK. The results confirmed that the degree of the economic impact of a disruption of gas supply to domestic consumers was a function of the duration of a supply disruption and the season in which a supply cut would take place, as well as other preferences of consumers. The willingness to pay to secure per unit of gas consumption, or alternatively the costs of gas unsupplied, was estimated at between €2.65/cubic metre and €41.48/cubic metre across three different European countries